Gujarat Verdict: What Do We Learn?

The speculations are over, the chaos and noise has finally ended and the all important verdict is out. The Gujarat Vidhan Sabha Results are finally in our hands and the ruling party BJP has won a consecutive sixth time, thus retaining its bastion in the state and reiterating the strength of saffron in the present political scenario.

However, there is much more to this mandate than is visible on the face of it. This win in Gujarat, a state which has traditionally been a BJP stronghold, was not a cakewalk for them this time around. Unlike most of the recent elections, the Congress looked like posing some serious challenge to the incumbent BJP thus making Gujarat elections one of the most hard fought and exciting electoral contests in the recent times.

So what were the factors that were playing on the minds of 6 crore Gujaratis when they went out to vote? Firstly, as is quite visible from the result, there was a significant level of resentment against the ruling state government, particularly in the absence of a leader of Modi’s stature. Also, the problems for the Gujarat BJP had further aggravated due to the anger of the Patidars and the Dalit communities which hold a major vote share in Gujarat. The impact of this distress was clearly seen in areas like Saurashtra where the BJP suffered a setback.

The inability of the Anandiben government and later the Rupani government to pacify the agitated communities and the growing dissatisfaction amongst Gujarati peasants and farmers gave birth to new young faces in Gujarat politics who went on to draw huge attention and support. Irrespective of their ideologies, I found it pretty refreshing to see the trio of 23 year old Hardik Patel, 40 year old Alpesh Thakor and 37 year old Jignesh Mevani giving the BJP their most serious electoral challenge in recent years.       

Since it was the first major election after the introduction of GST, there was also a large segment that was considering it as a direct mandate on the schemes and policies of the Modi Government, particularly the GST. However, as it has turned out people are still in support of the Prime Minister and his vision for development. In fact, the BJP almost swept the Surat area where there was apparently maximum exasperation post GST, bagging 15 out of the 16 seats in the industrial and trade hub.  

Gujarat has almost followed a similar voting pattern in the past elections which, broadly speaking, divides the state into Urban and Rural voters. In a state with a 40% urban population, urban voters have always played a major role in forming the government and this fact is quite evident from the result. The BJP has been able to woo the voters in cities and suburbs which form a major chunk of their seats. In fact, winning 15/21 seats in Ahmedabad, 15/16 seats in Surat, 8/10 seats in Vadodara and 6/8 seats in Rajkot, the BJP has decimated the Congress in urban pockets. 

 In spite of the win, the BJP needs to take this mandate as rather a wake-up call. There is growing impatience and restlessness among voters across the nation, especially in the rural areas. The BJP has suffered huge losses in the rural areas in these elections which implies that the welfare schemes are perhaps not being percolated to the lowest level efficiently. They need to retrospect and assess the situation since bigger and more difficult challenges await them with elections in predominantly rural and agrarian states like MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh scheduled for 2018 and then of course the Parliamentary Elections in 2019.

As for the Congress, they have probably exceeded their own expectations in this lost battle. This taste of success, although partial, would hopefully invigorate the workers and motivate them to work more actively at the ground level at which they have failed miserably since 2014. Rahul Gandhi is slowly but surely emerging as a composed and reliable politician and with him at the helm of the decision making now, the Grand Old Party would hopefully act as a mature, responsible and credible opposition to check and deter the drawbacks of the ruling party.

There are indeed lessons to be learnt and introspection to be done as far as the political parties are concerned. Also, the voters across the nation witnessed new trends, important issues and modes of campaigning which would certainly affect the voting trends in the future elections.

The Gujarat elections were indeed special in ways more than one. Fought in the backdrop of Anti-Incumbency, large protests and witnessing the emergence of young leaders challenging the incumbents- they had it all. Most importantly it brought important lessons for the ruling party and also a sense of belief to the opposition- two things that matter the most in a democracy. Well done Gujarat!