The Indian Game of Thrones- How Did We Choose Our Future?

A great statesman once famously said “Today our government has lost the vote of confidence motion by just one vote and the Congress Party is mocking us…but the Congress should never forget that one day we will form government in the entire country and people will be mocking the Congress party”.

Late Mr. Vajpayee was absolutely right. This was not just the agony of the moment and he knew very well that Indian politics can be highly generous and can be equally merciless. It has been just a couple of decades since then and we see how the tables have turned.

So here we have it…the 'Great Indian Political Blockbuster 2019' comes to an end. The Indian Game of Thrones - as they love to call it has finally culminated. It was a hard (read fiercely) fought battle. It had all that a blockbuster should have – its share of emotions, drama, comedy and even action (you know which state I am talking about). A lot was at stake- political careers, survival of political parties, relevance of ideologies and most importantly the aspirations and hopes of some 900 million voters of the nation. As was being projected, not just in the build up to the elections but perhaps ever since the 2014 elections though in a subtle way, it boiled down to a direct face off between the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the entire opposition.

We have the numbers now and it has obviously been a clean sweep for the BJP. Regardless of your political ideology, I think the BJP deserves an ovation and hearty congratulations for their incredible performance. It is indeed a historical mandate. You can feel the impact that the BJP has made by the looking at the fact that only thrice in the history of Indian democracy has a Prime Minister returned to the office with a complete majority. The numbers never lie and Modi and his team need to be applauded for churning out such mind boggling numbers.        

The results are being analyzed from different viewpoints and being crunched in every way possible to understand and interpret the mindset of the Indian voters. The biggest question which I think that perhaps we are still trying to find an answer to is whether this mandate was in favor of the incumbent government or more against the opposition. Both! I’d say, since it is difficult to generalize the mindset of such a diverse mass of voters.

And I have my reasons for this. The BJP, even when it was on the other side of the table, has always boasted of a very loyal vote bank – which mainly consists of upper caste Hindus and the business communities that hardly moves away from them. But ever since Modi has stepped into national politics, people who have been impressed by his track record in Gujarat and due to his image of a strong decision maker have gradually aligned themselves with the BJP, although not in encouragement of their ideologies. Also, the Hindutva factor of the BJP can never be ignored and has always been playing a key factor in Indian Politics. Add to that the dismal fight from the opposition and you have the numbers for a whopping majority that they have got. To put it in simple words, a huge chunk of the otherwise neutral votes are now going to the BJP.

Coming to the opposition- which didn’t even officially exist in the Lower House for five years and would not be existing even after these results due to the lack of required numbers. Such is the sorry state of the INC that they have even failed to open their account in 18 states/UT’s. In 2014 they were swept away by the Modi Wave and due to a strong anti incumbency factor.  2019 was no different for them electorally and they were again blown away-almost like a repeat telecast of the 2014 disaster. It is no exaggeration to say that the Grand Old Party is going through the darkest phase of its electoral history and the BJP are cashing in on this weakness big time.

So how did the BJP again convince the voters- particularly the neutral ones? Or was it more of a social engineering from Amit Shah that reaped the dividends at the right time? It was obviously more difficult for them than 2014. Anti incumbency had made their job hell lot easier back then. However, this time the pitch in front of the public had to be different.  They had to tell what good they had been doing and so they talked about schemes, they talked about highways, they talked about power and rural electrification and they talked about financial inclusion. Prime Minister tried to set the narrative around development initiatives that the country has seen in the past five years.

National security remained a big factor- which I reckon was perhaps the match winner for the BJP. If some media houses and their surveys are to be believed the popularity of the government which was slightly waning before the Balakot Air Strikes suddenly took a new surge after the entire episode. The sounds of nationalism reverberated in the ears of every Indian voter and as the results have shown eventually gave the BJP tremendous benefit.  Also by smart and timely use of terms like Ujjwala, Awas Yojana, Smart City, Jan Dhan, Jeevan Beema Jyoti and Beti Bachao….the BJP was able to create a positive projection of a development friendly and an inclusive growth conducive ecosystem in the country.

The Amit Shah factor can be hardly overlooked. If there is one person who can be called the real architect of this massive BJP wave, it has to be their national president. Amit Shah is often cited in the media as the best social engineer in India right now and 2019 was a sort of litmus test for him. And man, did he do well! There were certain issues with the alliance parties and there also was a looming threat of caste equations going wrong due to a united opposition, especially in UP and Bihar. But, as it has turned out, he successfully decoded the caste mathematics of the two regions. His biggest achievement has however been snatching away 18 seats in West Bengal from Mamata Banerjee’s bastion which has been a stunning growth for the BJP.   

So all this went right for the winner…very well! And what went wrong for the loser? Well, almost everything! Anti Incumbency is always a factor in Indian Politics. The voters here have this tendency to get disillusioned from the government no matter what. In spite of the support that Modi enjoys, there were many sections of the society that were visibly upset from his government. There were talks of failed promises, unemployment, agrarian distress, 15 lakh in every bank account, black money, Nirav Modi. And of course, the nation had not yet forgotten the pains of Demonetization and the adversities of the GST.

There lied an opportunity for the opposition- not necessarily to win the elections but at least to make an impact. There was a definite chance to make some inroads into the BJP territory and to try and counter the Modi-Shah Magic to some extent. But they failed miserably and collectively. Even the Mahagathbandhan could not get the expected results and lost the battle of survival. Right from seat sharing to conflicts at the ground level- the combined opposition experiment proved to be an utter failure- rather an embarrassment.

Congress could not withstand the charisma and the confidence of the Prime Minister. Rahul Gandhi looked a bit more composed personality, toiled harder this time around and even got able support from his sister. But in the end he failed to communicate the failures of the government to the masses and even more agonizingly lost his own bastion of Amethi. The personal attacks on the integrity of the Prime Minister and jibes like ‘Chowkidaar Chor hai’ might have back lashed against the Congress as well. In the hind sight, I think the Congress picked up the wrong issues to target the government. Issues like Rafael did not seem to resonate with the common voter who is more concerned with issues like prices, employment and safety which could have been exploited in a better way. The congress leadership may be realized this too late which led to this fiasco.

The 2019 Parliamentary Elections will go down in history as a hard fought contest where all the parties collectively tried to defy a single force and still could not stand their ground.  It was more a battle of projection than that of issues and here BJP was miles ahead of Congress which finally translated to their stupendous show. Myths were broken, theories were proved wrong, stalwarts lost and many dark horses won. But to sum it up, all we can say is that the Indian voter once again showed to the world that when it comes to showering love he can bless you with limitless affection and when it comes to punishing he will be ruthless and unsparing .This is where the true beauty of Democracy lies and that is why we have faith in Democracy….

Long Live Democracy…Long Live Indian Voter…Long Live India!